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Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
 In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand growth/patterns, and deflation in asset prices. And how prevalently this deflation has already manifested in newbuilding prices! In real dollar terms, we are currently at historic all-time lows!
In regards to dry bulkers, there is essentially no newbuilding market due to the steep discount of newbuilding resales versus ‘new’ newbuilding contracts. For example, Chinese Cape resales stand at rgn $33m while no yard can quote less than low $40m’s for newbuilding. Newbuilding prices are well into all-time inflation-adjusted lows. For instance, in 1985 at the absolute nominal nadir, Panamax Bulker newbuildings could be contracted at $13.5m which translate at $30.2m today’s dollars. This is low enough for investing because it is substantially below the true cost of creating the underlying asset and the current NB resale prices benchmark a nominal 15-year low vs newbuilding prices, a metric that appears unbeatable for several investments including shipping.
Tanker newbuilding prices are also depressed but at least there is a thin market with several LOIs placed and fewer actual contracts. Interestingly, in nominal terms we are well below the 2012 lows, one of the worst tanker freight years in modern history. This can be attributed to the deteriorating lack of financing and outlook on the segment. Tanker newbuildings will eventually become a buying opportunity since second hand vessel prices have been correcting but not any close to the dry bulk levels (the last is tanker owners’ worst fear).
Shipbuilding prices are moving towards the bottom while will remain low for some time -unless something spectacular occurs in the freight market- due to government subsidies, over-competition, low commodity prices, currencies devaluations, lack of financing and the yards resolution to accept loss-making orders to keep the production line going. On the other hand, the substantial downsizing of shipbuilding overcapacity, the emergence of government-backed NB contracts, certain attempts to cartelize pricing (see, Korea) and regulatory developments constitute major resistance levels.
All in all, the prevailing dry bulk newbuilding resales represent an attractive entry point. The ongoing correction in tanker newbuilding prices, which are already well-below the 2002 crashed prices in real dollars, will eventually lead to excellently timed orders. Hopefully over-ordering this time will be avoided thanks to lack of financing and the recent/ongoing traumas.Chartering (Wet: Stable +/ Dry: Firm +)
With a lot of help from Capes last week, the dry bulk market reached levels last seen back in 2015. The BDI closed today (13/09/2016) at 796 points, down by 8 points compared to yesterday’s levels (12/09/2016) and an increase of 51 points when compared to previous Tuesday’s closing (06/09/2016). Despite the fact that earnings kept witnessing pressure in some cases, activity for the crude carriers remained healthy, fact that will act as a meaningful support in the following days. The BDTI on Monday (12/09/2016) was at 543 points, an increase of 26 points and the BCTI at 402, a decrease of 32 points compared to last Tuesday’s (05/09/2016) levels.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 18 October 16
COAL PRICES KEPT CLIMBING
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Tuesday, 18 October 16
PANAMAX: A FAIRLY POSITIVE END TO THE WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Things seemed to be moving sideways during the first half of the week, with resistance being felt as owners tried to resist any further ...
Monday, 17 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS SOFTENED IN ALL SEGMENTS THIS PAST WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 14 October 16
SUPRAMAXES: DELIVERY SINGAPORE ARE SETTLING AROUND HIGH 6K'S FOR COAL TRIPS TO CHINA VIA INDO - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Wait and see attitude prevailing all over the market.
There have been several fresh cargoes, which have been efficiently covered by ...
Friday, 14 October 16
U.S. SHIPPED 3.3 MMST COAL IN JULY 2016; DECLINE 40% M/M
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.6 million short ton ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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