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Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
 In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand growth/patterns, and deflation in asset prices. And how prevalently this deflation has already manifested in newbuilding prices! In real dollar terms, we are currently at historic all-time lows!
In regards to dry bulkers, there is essentially no newbuilding market due to the steep discount of newbuilding resales versus ‘new’ newbuilding contracts. For example, Chinese Cape resales stand at rgn $33m while no yard can quote less than low $40m’s for newbuilding. Newbuilding prices are well into all-time inflation-adjusted lows. For instance, in 1985 at the absolute nominal nadir, Panamax Bulker newbuildings could be contracted at $13.5m which translate at $30.2m today’s dollars. This is low enough for investing because it is substantially below the true cost of creating the underlying asset and the current NB resale prices benchmark a nominal 15-year low vs newbuilding prices, a metric that appears unbeatable for several investments including shipping.
Tanker newbuilding prices are also depressed but at least there is a thin market with several LOIs placed and fewer actual contracts. Interestingly, in nominal terms we are well below the 2012 lows, one of the worst tanker freight years in modern history. This can be attributed to the deteriorating lack of financing and outlook on the segment. Tanker newbuildings will eventually become a buying opportunity since second hand vessel prices have been correcting but not any close to the dry bulk levels (the last is tanker owners’ worst fear).
Shipbuilding prices are moving towards the bottom while will remain low for some time -unless something spectacular occurs in the freight market- due to government subsidies, over-competition, low commodity prices, currencies devaluations, lack of financing and the yards resolution to accept loss-making orders to keep the production line going. On the other hand, the substantial downsizing of shipbuilding overcapacity, the emergence of government-backed NB contracts, certain attempts to cartelize pricing (see, Korea) and regulatory developments constitute major resistance levels.
All in all, the prevailing dry bulk newbuilding resales represent an attractive entry point. The ongoing correction in tanker newbuilding prices, which are already well-below the 2002 crashed prices in real dollars, will eventually lead to excellently timed orders. Hopefully over-ordering this time will be avoided thanks to lack of financing and the recent/ongoing traumas.Chartering (Wet: Stable +/ Dry: Firm +)
With a lot of help from Capes last week, the dry bulk market reached levels last seen back in 2015. The BDI closed today (13/09/2016) at 796 points, down by 8 points compared to yesterday’s levels (12/09/2016) and an increase of 51 points when compared to previous Tuesday’s closing (06/09/2016). Despite the fact that earnings kept witnessing pressure in some cases, activity for the crude carriers remained healthy, fact that will act as a meaningful support in the following days. The BDTI on Monday (12/09/2016) was at 543 points, an increase of 26 points and the BCTI at 402, a decrease of 32 points compared to last Tuesday’s (05/09/2016) levels.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 October 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 3.2% TO 16 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16 million short tons ...
Monday, 24 October 16
DRY BULK:MARKET ENDS WEEK WITH MIXED REACTIONS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ending with mixed direction as Cape and BDI was declined ...
Thursday, 20 October 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 16.97 PERCENT MORE COAL IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,216.7 m ...
Thursday, 20 October 16
A SUPRAMAX HAVE BEEN FIXED AT $12,500 FOR A INDIA TO BANGLADESH TRIP - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A bit more activities with modest upturn in rates.
According to Fearnleys weekly report, US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero has seen cons ...
Wednesday, 19 October 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IS IN A WAIT AND SEE MODE - INTERMODAL
We are now heading towards the end of a rather volatile 2016 for the dry bulk segment. During the last 10 months there were never any clear indicat ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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