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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 July 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 15 MMST IN 2016 AND BY 4 MMST IN 2017
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production in June was 57 million short tons (MMst), a 6 MMst (13%) increase from May and 9 MMst (14%) lower than in June 2 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 16
2015 VS. 2016; THE DRY BULK DEMOLITION DERBY - JOHN N. COTZIAS
In the first half of the year 373 Bulkers and General Cargo ships were scrapped representing 23.8mil tons of dwt carrying capacity.
Comparing ...
Tuesday, 12 July 16
DUE TO LONG HOLIDAYS, CS COAL INDICES HELD AT THE SAME LEVEL OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was flat week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week.
Due to the ...
Monday, 11 July 16
COAL MARKETS SAW IMPROVED PRICES IN H1 2016 - SGX'S COMMODITIES MID-YEAR REFLECTION
COALspot.com: Coal
Coal markets saw improved prices in H1 2016 with the benchmark coking coal and thermal coal spot prices rising 18% and 25%, re ...
Monday, 11 July 16
THE MAIN SEA FREIGHT INDEX, BDI ROSE FURTHER ON 8 JULY DUE TO STRONG DEMAND FOR PANAMAX SHIPS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.84 percent from las ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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