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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 July 16
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL INDEXES CONTINUALLY FIRM UP ON ROBUST BUYING INTEREST - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose One percent week over week to averaging $40.38 per ton this past week, shows CS ...
Monday, 18 July 16
FROM PIT TO PORT: DRY BULK NEEDS A NEW PATH TO PROFITABILITY - TOC EUROPE
During the golden years for commodities, from 2005 to 2014, high demand and big profit margins pushed companies to produce more and more, sacrifici ...
Monday, 18 July 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX REMAIN FIRM, UP BY 5.97 WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to remain firm with all segments ending in posi ...
Friday, 15 July 16
US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 8.4% WEEK-OVER-WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 12.9 million short tons (mms ...
Thursday, 14 July 16
SHIPPING'S HALF YEAR REPORT - 'MUST DO BETTER' - CLARKSONS
It’s the time of year, with the school holidays and end of term approaching, that many pupils will nervously take home their school reports t ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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