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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 July 16
DRY BULK MARKET: UP TO 30 MILLION DWT OF OLDER BULKERS WILL NEED TO BE SCRAPPED BY END OF 2017 FOR MARKET TO FIND BALANCE
Tonnage oversupply in the dry bulk market is more than evident, as newbuildings have been hitting the water faster than owners can scrap their olde ...
Friday, 08 July 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 3% TO 14.1 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.1 million short tons (mms ...
Thursday, 07 July 16
PANAMAX : THE TENDENCY FROM LAST WEEK CONTINUES WITH A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER SENTIMENT ALL ACROSS THE BLOCK - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates have been holding at steady levels over the last weeks but towards end of this period they are becoming under more pressure as gen ...
Thursday, 07 July 16
CONSOLIDATION TO RULE OVER SHIPPING, AS EXECUTIVES SEEK INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA, INDIA AND EUROPE SAYS NORTON ROSE SURVEY
The transport sector is looking to Asia Pacific as the key market for investment over the next five years, according to the seventh The way ahead T ...
Wednesday, 06 July 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 780000 MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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