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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 July 16
THE BDI FELL ON WEAKER RATES FOR CAPESIZE & PANAMAX VESSELS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Cape and Panamax segments ending in neg ...
Friday, 22 July 16
U.S COAL OUTPUT ROSE 17.2% WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million short tons (mms ...
Thursday, 21 July 16
WHAT TO DO WHEN YOU DON'T GET PAID - SHIPOWNERS CLUB
Present market conditions have led to an increase in claims related to unpaid hire. To recover unpaid hire, Owners need to fully understand who the ...
Thursday, 21 July 16
CONSTRUCTIVE TOTAL LOSS: WHAT GOES IN TO CALCULATING QUANTUM? - HILL DICKINSON
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Commercial Court recently delivered its judgment in an important case (Connect Shipping Inc and Machrimar Management ...
Wednesday, 20 July 16
EDIBLE OIL MARKETS ACROSS THE GLOBE REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The edible oil markets across the globe remain under pressure on the back of lackluster demand. Some of the main factors causing the low activity a ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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