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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 July 16
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS VASSILIOU
After a fairly silent first half of the year in the ship repair sector, we have finally a harmonized workload in the shipyards around the world. Ma ...
Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the mon ...
Tuesday, 05 July 16
SPOT COAL INDEXES FOR INDONESIAN COAL CONTINUE TO HOLD FIRM - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up by 0.83 percent week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week, sh ...
Monday, 04 July 16
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE CLIMBED 2.30% IN JULY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price increased in July 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the r ...
Monday, 04 July 16
BDI ROSE ON STRONGER DEMAND ACROSS ALL VESSEL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 11.16 percent from la ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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