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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 28 July 16
LAST WEEK ENDING UP WITH BUSIER TONES FOR SUPRAMAXES NOW COOLING DOWN - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Last week ending up with busier tones for Supramaxes now cooling down as with index being down to 684. Average daily earnings for Supram ...
Wednesday, 27 July 16
RATES FOR THE SMALLER SIZES OVER-PERFORMED THE MARKET LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
The decline the BDI noted last week was somewhat expected given the fact that the market has been overall firming for almost a month no ...
Wednesday, 27 July 16
GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN GLOBAL CONSUMPTION IN 2016 - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Global oil supply is expected to remain higher than global consumption in 2016, keeping oil prices at relatively low levels this summer compared wi ...
Tuesday, 26 July 16
NORTH P&I CLUB EXPLAINS HOW TO AVOID CLAIMS FOR SELF-COOKING SOYA BEANS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
North P&I Club has advised its members to be extra vigilant during loading and transport of soya beans to ensure they ...
Monday, 25 July 16
STRONG BUYER DEMAND PUSHING UP INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL INDICES
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.73 percent week over week to averaging $40.83 per ton this past week, shows C ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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