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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 02 August 16
INDONESIAN CS COAL INDICES STAY POSITIVE
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.71% week over week to averaging $41.12 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Monday, 01 August 16
4200 GAR INDONESIAN COAL PRICE MAY TOUCH $ 32/33 A TON LEVELS SOON
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal prices are likely surge further in 2016 as the recent price movement in Indonesian coal markets suggests that the mar ...
Monday, 01 August 16
BALTIC INDEX ENDED NEGATIVE NOTE THIS PAST WEEK ON WEAKER RATES ACROSS ALL LARGE VESSEL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Cape, Panamax and Supramax segments end ...
Friday, 29 July 16
U.S. COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15 million short tons ( ...
Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow a ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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