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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 02 August 16
INDONESIAN CS COAL INDICES STAY POSITIVE
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.71% week over week to averaging $41.12 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Monday, 01 August 16
4200 GAR INDONESIAN COAL PRICE MAY TOUCH $ 32/33 A TON LEVELS SOON
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal prices are likely surge further in 2016 as the recent price movement in Indonesian coal markets suggests that the mar ...
Monday, 01 August 16
BALTIC INDEX ENDED NEGATIVE NOTE THIS PAST WEEK ON WEAKER RATES ACROSS ALL LARGE VESSEL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Cape, Panamax and Supramax segments end ...
Friday, 29 July 16
U.S. COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15 million short tons ( ...
Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow a ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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