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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 August 16
CAPESIZE : RATES ARE REMAINING AT DEPRESSING LEVELS DUE TO LACK OF FRESH CARGOES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Last week has been one of the slowest for some time with rates under pressure in most areas.
In its latest weekly report, shipbroke ...
Thursday, 04 August 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES ARE STARTING TO ZOOM HIGHER; HBA ROSE 10.13% TO US$ 58.37 PER TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since August 2015.
The Director General of Mineral and Coa ...
Thursday, 04 August 16
BREXIT: IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL SHIPPING AND SEA TRADE - EVERSHEDS
The buzzword for the post-Brexit landscape both in Europe and further afield is ‘uncertainty’. No-one really knows the long term effect ...
Wednesday, 03 August 16
RECAAP INFORMATION SHARING CENTRE ISSUES SPECIAL REPORT ON THE ABDUCTING OF CREW FROM SHIPS IN WATERS OFF EASTERN SABAH AND SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the light of three incidents where the crew of tug boats were abducted in the waters off Eastern Sabah and Southern Ph ...
Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIP TRADING AND ORDERING CLOSE TO A STALEMATE AS SUMMER LULL KICKS IN
With newbuilding activity already at a near standstill since the start of the year, most of 2016’s trading activity in shipping was evident i ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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