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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 August 16
THE TURKISH GOVERNMENT HAS IMPOSED A $15 A TON DUTY ON POWER PLANT COAL IMPORTS - MEDIA
COALspot.com: The Turkish government has imposed a US$15 per ton duty on thermal coal imports for use in its power sector.
According to media ...
Monday, 08 August 16
THE BALTIC EXCHANGE, TRACKING RATES FOR SHIPS CARRYING DRY BULK COMMODITIES SLIDE SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Panamax and Supramax segments ending in ...
Monday, 08 August 16
ARE EXPENSES INCURRED DURING NEGOTIATION OF A PIRATE RANSOM RECOVERABLE IN GENERAL AVERAGE? - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Facts
The laden chemical tanker LONGCHAMP was transiting the Gulf of Aden on passage to Vietnam. The ship was subject t ...
Saturday, 06 August 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING CHARTER RATES TO RISE ON UNEXPECTED DEMAND GROWTH - DREWRY
Increasing trade and contracting supply will support a recovery in charter rates on major dry bulk shipping routes, with the prospect of China impo ...
Friday, 05 August 16
WEEKLY U.S. COAL OUTPUT TOTALED AN ESTIMATED 16.1 MMST IN THE WEEK ENDED JULY 30 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short tons ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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