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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE INDONESIAN DRAFT NEW MINING LAW - AMENDMENTS TO THE 2009 MINING LAW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: A draft mining law published by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources provides use ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
CS50 COAL INDEX HITS NEW FIFTY-WEEKS HIGH
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 1.78% week over week to averaging $41.85 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND WORLD TRADE ON THE DECLINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN YEARS - VDKI
Hard coal production and world trade on the decline for the first time in years – not a harbinger of a global energy turnaround
Worldwid ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
BREXIT, BRITANNIA AND THE WAVES - TREVOR CROWE, CLARKSON RESEARCH
This week, the Bank of England put into place its action plan following the UK referendum on 23rd June, which indicated the British population&rsqu ...
Monday, 08 August 16
INDONESIA'S DRAFT MINING LAW HINTS AT FUTURE REGULATORY FRAMEWORK
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: A draft mining law published by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources provides use ...
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Showing 2326 to 2330 news of total 6871 |
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
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