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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE INDONESIAN DRAFT NEW MINING LAW - AMENDMENTS TO THE 2009 MINING LAW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: A draft mining law published by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources provides use ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
CS50 COAL INDEX HITS NEW FIFTY-WEEKS HIGH
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 1.78% week over week to averaging $41.85 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND WORLD TRADE ON THE DECLINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN YEARS - VDKI
Hard coal production and world trade on the decline for the first time in years – not a harbinger of a global energy turnaround
Worldwid ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
BREXIT, BRITANNIA AND THE WAVES - TREVOR CROWE, CLARKSON RESEARCH
This week, the Bank of England put into place its action plan following the UK referendum on 23rd June, which indicated the British population&rsqu ...
Monday, 08 August 16
INDONESIA'S DRAFT MINING LAW HINTS AT FUTURE REGULATORY FRAMEWORK
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: A draft mining law published by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources provides use ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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