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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 15 August 16
THE SPOT FREIGHT MARKET STRENGTHEN OVER THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose as Cape and Panamax segments ending in a positive no ...
Friday, 12 August 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ENDING AUGUST 6 FELL SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
CAPESIZE THE PACIFIC SIDE IS LOOKING MORE POSITIVE, DRIVEN BY AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rates continue to be under pressure with index ending up with 639 points and average TC value at USD6,680, said Fearnleys. Fearnleys A/S ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
EIA ESTIMATES THE DELIVERED COAL PRICE TO U.S. ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN 2017 AVERAGED $2.24/MMBTU; $0.05/MMBTU HIGHER THAN 2016 ESTIMATES
Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in July was 65 million short tons (MMst), an 8 MMst (14%) increase from the previous month but 11 MMst (15%) low ...
Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET KEPT SOFTENING LAST WEEK; WE CAN SEE MUCH HEALTHIER NUMBERS STARTING SEPTEMBER
The Dry Bulk market kept softening last week as we have now started going through the traditionally quieter days of the summer season peak period, ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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