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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 15 August 16
THE SPOT FREIGHT MARKET STRENGTHEN OVER THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose as Cape and Panamax segments ending in a positive no ...
Friday, 12 August 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ENDING AUGUST 6 FELL SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
CAPESIZE THE PACIFIC SIDE IS LOOKING MORE POSITIVE, DRIVEN BY AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rates continue to be under pressure with index ending up with 639 points and average TC value at USD6,680, said Fearnleys. Fearnleys A/S ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
EIA ESTIMATES THE DELIVERED COAL PRICE TO U.S. ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN 2017 AVERAGED $2.24/MMBTU; $0.05/MMBTU HIGHER THAN 2016 ESTIMATES
Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in July was 65 million short tons (MMst), an 8 MMst (14%) increase from the previous month but 11 MMst (15%) low ...
Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET KEPT SOFTENING LAST WEEK; WE CAN SEE MUCH HEALTHIER NUMBERS STARTING SEPTEMBER
The Dry Bulk market kept softening last week as we have now started going through the traditionally quieter days of the summer season peak period, ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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