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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 19 August 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALLED AN ESTIMATED 421.6 MMST
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 18 August 16
CAPESIZE: AN EXTREMELY VOLATILE LAST WEEK, WHERE THE MAIN DRIVER HAS BEEN THE WEST AUSTRALIA MARKET
Supramax
The week has held up. After the most of the world is back at work there is some optimism again in the market. The Far East volume has in ...
Tuesday, 16 August 16
WEEKLY CS42 COAL INDEX SOARS 14.08% YEAR TO DATE AMID HIGH DEMAND
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 2.37% week over week to averaging $42.84 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Monday, 15 August 16
DRY BULK: 2017 COULD MARK THE START OF LOWER SHIP DELIVERIES HELPING TONNAGE SUPPLY ISSUES IN THE MARKET, SAYS SHIPOWNER - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk owner Pacific Basin, mainly active in the Handysize and Supramax trades appeared optimistic in its analysis of the prospects of the dry bu ...
Monday, 15 August 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES RALLYING; COAL OUTPUT REMAINS FLAT
COALspot.com: Global thermal coal prices, including Indonesian coal prices have risen sharply due to jump in imports from China as it curbs domesti ...
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Showing 2316 to 2320 news of total 6871 |
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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