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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 August 16
DRY BULK VESSELS FACE CONTINUED DISTRESS - CLEAR ASSET
Dry bulk vessels have faced extreme distress in recent years. With a combination of factors including newer vessels being ordered with up to 5-year ...
Tuesday, 23 August 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX CLIMB 15.96% YEAR TO DATE - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 4200 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 1.65 % week over week to averaging $31.46 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) ...
Tuesday, 23 August 16
KOMIPO TO IMPORT 250K OF 5,700 KCAL/KG NAR COAL FOR Q4' 16
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for total 250,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for ...
Monday, 22 August 16
INDONESIA'S CS 5000 GAR THERMAL COAL INDEX, ROSE TO A 57-WEEKS HIGH TO TOP $43.47 A TON
COALspot.com: Indonesia’s CS 5000 GAR thermal coal index, rose to a 57-weeks high to top $US43. 47 a ton in the latest week, extending a 18-w ...
Monday, 22 August 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY THIS PAST WEEK; CAPE INDEX DECLINE 5.38%
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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