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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 August 16
DRY BULK VESSELS FACE CONTINUED DISTRESS - CLEAR ASSET
Dry bulk vessels have faced extreme distress in recent years. With a combination of factors including newer vessels being ordered with up to 5-year ...
Tuesday, 23 August 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX CLIMB 15.96% YEAR TO DATE - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 4200 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 1.65 % week over week to averaging $31.46 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) ...
Tuesday, 23 August 16
KOMIPO TO IMPORT 250K OF 5,700 KCAL/KG NAR COAL FOR Q4' 16
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for total 250,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for ...
Monday, 22 August 16
INDONESIA'S CS 5000 GAR THERMAL COAL INDEX, ROSE TO A 57-WEEKS HIGH TO TOP $43.47 A TON
COALspot.com: Indonesia’s CS 5000 GAR thermal coal index, rose to a 57-weeks high to top $US43. 47 a ton in the latest week, extending a 18-w ...
Monday, 22 August 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY THIS PAST WEEK; CAPE INDEX DECLINE 5.38%
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
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Showing 2311 to 2315 news of total 6871 |
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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