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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 29 August 16
THE 5000 GAR THERMAL COAL INDEX HAS STRENGTHENED BY 9.90% SINCE JANUARY
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing upward and it is expected to ral ...
Monday, 29 August 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY AND FIRM THIS PAST WEEK; BCI ROSE 18.74%
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
Friday, 26 August 16
WEEKLY US COAL OUTPUT UP 0.7% W/W TO 16 MMST: EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16 million short tons ...
Thursday, 25 August 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE BEING FIXED IN REGION OF $9000
Supramax
Due to Chinese coal imports which continues to source much of the tonnage in SE Asia combined with a good flow of mineral exports ex Aus ...
Wednesday, 24 August 16
MARKET INSIGHT
Brazil and the world bid farewell on Sunday to the first Olympic Games in South America in the midst of a finale meant to be both one last bash and ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
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