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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 September 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 19 MMST IN 2016 TO 55 MMST
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million sho ...
Thursday, 01 September 16
SUPRAMAX GETTING LEVELS OF MID/HIGHER 7K DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR TRIPS TO CHINA AND AROUND 9K FOR DIRECTION INDIA - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week started slower with London on bank holiday Monday. The south east Asian market seems to have been taking a breather with chart ...
Thursday, 01 September 16
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.33 PERCENT MORE COAL IN JULY
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1.10 bill ...
Wednesday, 31 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET MANAGED TO FIND FURTHER SUPPORT DURING THE LAST DAYS OF THE SUMMER SEASON - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market managed to find further support during the last days of the summer season, with the BDI climbing above 700 last Friday, reachin ...
Tuesday, 30 August 16
THE SUDDEN SURGE IN IRON ORE TRADE HAS CREPT UP ON THE MARKET THIS PAST WEEK - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The sudden surge in Iron ore trade has crept up on the market this past week bringing about a change in the prospects for Capes. Continued increase ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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