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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 06 September 16
INDO GOVT. SETS SEPTEMBER COAL REFERENCE PRICE AT US$ 63.93 PER TON; JUMP 20.17% YTD
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since April 2015. The government declared benchmark prices f ...
Tuesday, 06 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE PACIFIC BASIN WAS THE MAIN REGION KEEPING UP WITH THE POSITIVE SUPPORT - ALLIED
Capesize
Despite some mixed feelings being seen early on in the week, we managed to see a positive week-on-week close on Friday with some positiv ...
Monday, 05 September 16
INDIA BECAME ADARO'S SECOND LARGEST MARKET IN 1H' 16
COALspot.com: The Wara Balangan blend product has been well received by customers in China and India - AI
In the second quarter of 2 ...
Monday, 05 September 16
POOR FREIGHT RATES DESPITE STRONG DEMAND GROWTH FROM CHINA - BIMCO
Demand
The dry bulk commodity imports into and exports out of China we have seen in the first half of 2016 are very positive – and nothing ...
Monday, 05 September 16
FREIGHT RATE FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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