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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 September 16
THE CAPE MARKET HAS GAINS ON WEEK; THE CAPE INDEX SETTLING AT 1566 POINTS ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
Friday, 09 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED SLIGHTLY TO 16.1 MMST, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 09 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE SENTIMENT IS SOLID, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A quiet start with Labour Day celebrations in the United States leading to very little being reported from the Atlantic basin. Supramaxe ...
Thursday, 08 September 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS IN JUNE 2016 UP 29% COMPARED TO MAY 2016, SAYS EIA
U.S. coal production in August was 71 million short tons (MMst), which is 6 MMst (9%) higher than in the previous month and 12 MMst (14%) lower tha ...
Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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