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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 September 16
INDONESIA MAY FACE A COAL CRISIS BY 2035!
COALspot.com: Indonesia is the world’s fourth-largest coal producer and the world’s largest thermal coal exporter may face a coal crisi ...
Thursday, 15 September 16
CAPESIZE: LAST WEEK ENDED ON A VERY STRONG NOTE MAINLY DRIVEN BY A ACTIVE BRAZIL MARKET - FEARNLYS
Supramax
With holidays in the eastern hemisphere beginning this week, the sentiment and activity level has been decreasing.
In the Pacific, ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.48 MMT OF COAL IN AUGUST; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE WAS $AU 83.33
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU $1,040.4 ...
Tuesday, 13 September 16
CAPESIZE: BIG STRENGTH SEEN IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize - Big strength seen in the market this week, with an upbeat in sentiment amongst owners helping pull up rates fairly quickly and many hold ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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