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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 September 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
Amidst a challenging dry bulk and tanker market, very little time has been spent on the offshore industry developments during the past couple of ye ...
Monday, 19 September 16
AFTER YEARS OF COMA, COAL BECOMES THE MOST ATTRACTIVE COMMODITY RIGHT NOW
COALspot.com: China boosted coal imports in recent months. The Chinese government’s drive to cut over capacity pushed up the demand for therm ...
Monday, 19 September 16
THE CAPE INDEX WAS UP 7.28% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities declined and ending in a slightly negative note this past ...
Friday, 16 September 16
GLOBAL SHIPBUILDING: THE CHALLENGE TO REMAIN 'ACTIVE' - CHRISTOPHER PEARCE, CLARKSONS
The number of ‘active’ shipyards globally has more than halved since the start of 2009, falling to around 400 shipyards at the start of ...
Friday, 16 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED 6.2% TO 15.1 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million short ton ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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