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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its global growth expectations but as far as growth in emerging market and developing economies is concerned, expectations were unaffected. 2016 is still expected to be the first year since 2010 that growth in these countries will pick up and this is great news for the dry bulk market, as these economies, accounting for more than 70% of global growth, are also the main drivers of dry bulk shipping.
The Bad…
Supply. A lot of hopes have been generated from scrapping activity in bigger sizes this year but the truth is that we still have a long way to go before tonnage supply gets down to a level that it can meaningfully support earnings. Let’s look at some figures in the >120,000dwt range. These vessels accounted for 295.07m dwt in January, while today, despite all the intense scrapping we are only down to 294.87m., which means that cancellations and slippage made little difference once some of the scheduled deliveries kicked in. Adding to that the 12.00m dwt that have been ordered since January (30 Valemaxes) against the 11.94m dwt that have been scrapped during the same period and the answer to the “Are we there yet?” question becomes not just a simple “Not yet.” but rather a big fat “Not even close”.
And the Ugly.
Overlapping. Ultramaxes, Kamsarmaxes, Post-Panamaxes.
Can we create a new size called Evamax please?
Was the dry bulk trade actually in need of these sizes or has the market been getting ahead of itself since the last shipping boom? Fact; as designs evolve, ships change in both their efficiency and size. But then again shouldn’t the latter be a long-term process during which the fleet of the older size gets to substantially decrease? And much more importantly a process during which actual demand and consequently charterers and traders dictate parcel size needs much more than shipbuilders? It is no wonder that the poor old Panamax has been squeezed from both below (Ultramaxes) and above (Kamsarmaxes) in the dwt range, while the modern Post-Panamax fleet has been also striving to survive, simultaneously chocking those already battered Capesize margins.
“Buy now”, “Buy later”, “The best trade is no trade”.
Different strategies, different risks, different hopes. Someone who buys today a “cheap” vessel could potentially make money from a recovery in asset prices down the line. But is just “cheap” the goal? Let’s assume that the long awaited recovery in the Dry Bulk market delays much further. That instead of a more clearly shaped “up we go” in the period leading to the eventual recovery we get a lot of mini cycles, during which the bottom is around OPEX and the ceiling not too way above. The current crisis in the dry bulk sector – as every crisis does - will undoubtedly generate a new cluster of prosperous shipowners. Whether in this specific crisis these will be the ones betting on a meaningful asset play in the next couple of years (achieved with bigger, more expensive sizes) or the ones investing in vessels that can find employment much easier during market downturns, is probably the question at hand. Investing in a size that can cover more commodities, more ports, has fewer operating expenses and let’s face it is not as easily “controlled” by bigger players, allows owners to not just bet on the asset’s appreciation – a rather risky bet if it takes much longer for the market to recover – but also operate their ships in a less challenging/volatile environment. After all, even though history does repeat itself during market cycles, the fundamentals during the times it does usually differ vastly.
By Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 September 16
"COLLATERAL LIES" DO NOT NECESSARILY UNDERMINE AN INSURANCE CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An insured was not precluded from recovering under an insurance policy even though it had made a false statement during t ...
Friday, 23 September 16
EIA SEES U.S. COAL WEEKLY OUTPUT INCREASE
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Thursday, 22 September 16
CHINA IS THE PRICE-SETTING COUNTRY FOR GLOBAL THERMAL COAL
COALspot.com: China has been the driver of global coal growth since 2009. When China became the largest coal importer in 2011, the country also has ...
Thursday, 22 September 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE ACHIEVING AROUND $7000 FOR A TRIP WITH SINGAPORE DELIVERY VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA
Supramax
A slow start to the week in the Supramax segment in the Atlantic with not much being reported.
In the Blacksea Supramaxes are getti ...
Wednesday, 21 September 16
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS BEEN ON A RALLYING TREND SINCE THE END OF AUGUST - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The Capesize market has been on a rallying trend since the end of August, fuelled mainly by the chase by traders to pre-stock before the typical pi ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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