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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 01 March 16
CAN BULKCARRIER SUPPLY CUTS RESTORE SOME BALANCE? - CLARKSONS
The easing in bulkcarrier deliveries and the accelerated pace of demolition in recent years has seen bulkcarrier fleet growth slow from a rapid 17% ...
Monday, 29 February 16
BALTIC INDEX INCHES UP THIS PAST WEEK AS SMALLER VESSELS LEND SUPPORT
COALspot.com: The freight markets rose slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of global ...
Monday, 29 February 16
LOSS OF EARNINGS IN THE WAKE OF A COLLISION - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A shipowner’s loss of earnings can form a significant part of a collision claim. Awareness of the ways of calculati ...
Friday, 26 February 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 25 February 16
DRY BULKERS ARE SCRAPPED AT RECORD PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The newbuilding market is at a lull these days, as ship owners are focusing on two fronts, getting rid of excess dry bulk tonnage and snapping up b ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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