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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 01 March 16
CAN BULKCARRIER SUPPLY CUTS RESTORE SOME BALANCE? - CLARKSONS
The easing in bulkcarrier deliveries and the accelerated pace of demolition in recent years has seen bulkcarrier fleet growth slow from a rapid 17% ...
Monday, 29 February 16
BALTIC INDEX INCHES UP THIS PAST WEEK AS SMALLER VESSELS LEND SUPPORT
COALspot.com: The freight markets rose slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of global ...
Monday, 29 February 16
LOSS OF EARNINGS IN THE WAKE OF A COLLISION - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A shipowner’s loss of earnings can form a significant part of a collision claim. Awareness of the ways of calculati ...
Friday, 26 February 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 25 February 16
DRY BULKERS ARE SCRAPPED AT RECORD PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The newbuilding market is at a lull these days, as ship owners are focusing on two fronts, getting rid of excess dry bulk tonnage and snapping up b ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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