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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 01 March 16
CAN BULKCARRIER SUPPLY CUTS RESTORE SOME BALANCE? - CLARKSONS
The easing in bulkcarrier deliveries and the accelerated pace of demolition in recent years has seen bulkcarrier fleet growth slow from a rapid 17% ...
Monday, 29 February 16
BALTIC INDEX INCHES UP THIS PAST WEEK AS SMALLER VESSELS LEND SUPPORT
COALspot.com: The freight markets rose slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of global ...
Monday, 29 February 16
LOSS OF EARNINGS IN THE WAKE OF A COLLISION - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A shipowner’s loss of earnings can form a significant part of a collision claim. Awareness of the ways of calculati ...
Friday, 26 February 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 25 February 16
DRY BULKERS ARE SCRAPPED AT RECORD PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The newbuilding market is at a lull these days, as ship owners are focusing on two fronts, getting rid of excess dry bulk tonnage and snapping up b ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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