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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 19 February 16
INDONESIAN HBA HITS A NEW LOWS BELOW $51 A TON AS OVERSUPPLY, LOW DEMAND WOES PERSIST
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016. HBA has slumped second time t ...
Friday, 19 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 2.6% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.2 million shor ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
INDIA NEEDS INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT ON HIGH EFFICIENCY COAL - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
Speaking at a conference in New Delhi today, World Coal Association Chief Executive Benjamin Sporton said the critical role of coal in driving econ ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
CHINA COAL SECTOR - 2015 RESULTS BLEAK, 2016 UNLIKELY TO BE ANY BETTER - FITCH
COALspot.com: China Coal Sector’s Financial Woes to Worsen in 2016.
Fitch Ratings says that the 2015 full-year result previews issued by ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
PANAMAX RATES OUT OF ECSA WERE STILL GAINING A PREMIUM OVER THE REST OF THE MARKET - INTERMODAL
The BDI moved further down last week, fact that hardly took anyone by surprise as the lunar year holidays in Asia on top of the already depre ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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