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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 19 February 16
INDONESIAN HBA HITS A NEW LOWS BELOW $51 A TON AS OVERSUPPLY, LOW DEMAND WOES PERSIST
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016. HBA has slumped second time t ...
Friday, 19 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 2.6% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.2 million shor ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
INDIA NEEDS INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT ON HIGH EFFICIENCY COAL - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
Speaking at a conference in New Delhi today, World Coal Association Chief Executive Benjamin Sporton said the critical role of coal in driving econ ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
CHINA COAL SECTOR - 2015 RESULTS BLEAK, 2016 UNLIKELY TO BE ANY BETTER - FITCH
COALspot.com: China Coal Sector’s Financial Woes to Worsen in 2016.
Fitch Ratings says that the 2015 full-year result previews issued by ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
PANAMAX RATES OUT OF ECSA WERE STILL GAINING A PREMIUM OVER THE REST OF THE MARKET - INTERMODAL
The BDI moved further down last week, fact that hardly took anyone by surprise as the lunar year holidays in Asia on top of the already depre ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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