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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 19 February 16
INDONESIAN HBA HITS A NEW LOWS BELOW $51 A TON AS OVERSUPPLY, LOW DEMAND WOES PERSIST
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016. HBA has slumped second time t ...
Friday, 19 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 2.6% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.2 million shor ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
INDIA NEEDS INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT ON HIGH EFFICIENCY COAL - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
Speaking at a conference in New Delhi today, World Coal Association Chief Executive Benjamin Sporton said the critical role of coal in driving econ ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
CHINA COAL SECTOR - 2015 RESULTS BLEAK, 2016 UNLIKELY TO BE ANY BETTER - FITCH
COALspot.com: China Coal Sector’s Financial Woes to Worsen in 2016.
Fitch Ratings says that the 2015 full-year result previews issued by ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
PANAMAX RATES OUT OF ECSA WERE STILL GAINING A PREMIUM OVER THE REST OF THE MARKET - INTERMODAL
The BDI moved further down last week, fact that hardly took anyone by surprise as the lunar year holidays in Asia on top of the already depre ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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