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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 07 March 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX DECLINE $0.05 A TON WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $38.66 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 07 March 16
FREIGHT MARKET MOVING POSITIVE; ALL SEGMENTS EXCEPT CAPE SHOWING A FIRM TREND
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady this past week and showing a firm trend for all segments except for Cape index.
The Baltic Dry Ind ...
Friday, 04 March 16
GLOBAL ECONOMY'S JITTERS ARE SLOWING DOWN SHIPPING EVEN FURTHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The global economy’s shaky condition to say the least is now hampering growth and as a result demand for shipping is slowing down, something ...
Friday, 04 March 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 109.3 MMST; 30.2% LOWER THAN THE COMPARABLE YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION IN 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 03 March 16
INDIA'S BUDGET NOT ENOUGH TO BOOST STEELMAKERS' PROFITABILITY - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that increase in proposed infrastructure spending in India's latest government budget is unlikely to provide a ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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