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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 03 March 16
BDI FURTHER STRENGTHENING; THE INCREASE IN RATES WAS NOT SUBSTANTIAL
COALspot.com: The BDI closed off on a positive note for a second week in a row, further strengthening the belief that the market might be bottoming ...
Thursday, 03 March 16
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF INTEREST IN BENGALLA JOINT VENTURE FOR US$616.7 MILLION
COALspot.com: Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its 40 per cent interest in the Bengalla coal Joint Venture in Australia to New Hope Corporation ...
Wednesday, 02 March 16
RE-EVALUATION OF MINING LICENSES CLEAN AND CLEAR STATUS IN INDONESIA
COALspot.com: In connection with the transfer of mining authority from Regents/Mayors to Governors1 and from Regents/Mayors and Governors to t ...
Wednesday, 02 March 16
OIL MY GOD.....!!!!
OIL my GOD….!!!!
The oil price “crash” that started in 2014 was caused by a glut of practically unwanted oil. Producers had be ...
Tuesday, 01 March 16
CS 42 (4200 GAR) COAL INDEX CLOSED AT US$ 27.11 A TON ON 26 FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.31 percent week over week to averaging $38.77 per ton on this past Friday, ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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