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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 24 February 16
HOW IS THE FUEL MIX FOR U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION CHANGING? - EIA
In recent years, there have been changes in the mix of fuels used to generate electricity in the United States. Natural gas and renewable energy so ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS LOOKING TO EXIT SHIPPING, MOST NOTABLY DRY BULK, AS OVERORDERING HAS RESULTED IN EXCESS TONNAGE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The injection of more than $13 billion in shipping from various private equity funds over the past few years has resulted in what many feared would ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
THIRTEEN - NOT ALWAYS AN UNLUCKY NUMBER? - CLARKSONS
Back in early 1999 the price of a 5 year old Panamax bulkcarrier dipped to $13.5m, and ever since analysts have hailed purchase decisions made at t ...
Monday, 22 February 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX SETTLES AT $27.02, DOWN 0.07% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.17 percent week over week to averaging $38.89 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 22 February 16
FREIGHT MARKETS PICKED UP SLIGHTLY THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight markets picked up slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of gl ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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