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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 24 February 16
HOW IS THE FUEL MIX FOR U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION CHANGING? - EIA
In recent years, there have been changes in the mix of fuels used to generate electricity in the United States. Natural gas and renewable energy so ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS LOOKING TO EXIT SHIPPING, MOST NOTABLY DRY BULK, AS OVERORDERING HAS RESULTED IN EXCESS TONNAGE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The injection of more than $13 billion in shipping from various private equity funds over the past few years has resulted in what many feared would ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
THIRTEEN - NOT ALWAYS AN UNLUCKY NUMBER? - CLARKSONS
Back in early 1999 the price of a 5 year old Panamax bulkcarrier dipped to $13.5m, and ever since analysts have hailed purchase decisions made at t ...
Monday, 22 February 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX SETTLES AT $27.02, DOWN 0.07% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.17 percent week over week to averaging $38.89 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 22 February 16
FREIGHT MARKETS PICKED UP SLIGHTLY THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight markets picked up slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of gl ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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