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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 10 March 16
IT FEELS SAFE TO SAY THAT THE MARKET IS SLOWLY AND PAINFULLY REGAINING ITS BALANCE
With the BDI marking its third consecutive positive weekly closing, it feels safe to say that the market is regaining its balance; slowly and painf ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 24% (74 MMST) IN 2015; COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 111 MMST IN 2016 - EIA
U.S. Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production for February 2016 was 54 million short tons (MMst), a 4 MMst (7%) decrease from the prev ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
RI MAY HAVE TO IMPORT COAL FOR FUTURE POWER PLANTS: STUDY - THE JAKARTA POST
With coal prices continuing to decline, Indonesia will struggle to provide the coal needed to fire up its power stations in the near future, a stud ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
INDONESIA HIKES COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 12 MONTHS
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016, but up slightly in Mar ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
THE DRY CARGO MARKET ENDURED ONE OF ITS MOST DIFFICULT YEARS IN 2015, EXPERIENCING LOWS NOT SEEN SINCE THE MID 1980S - CLARKSONS
Whilst shipping and offshore markets have seen some good opportunities during 2015, overall there have been unprecedented challenges, so we are ver ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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