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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 10 March 16
IT FEELS SAFE TO SAY THAT THE MARKET IS SLOWLY AND PAINFULLY REGAINING ITS BALANCE
With the BDI marking its third consecutive positive weekly closing, it feels safe to say that the market is regaining its balance; slowly and painf ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 24% (74 MMST) IN 2015; COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 111 MMST IN 2016 - EIA
U.S. Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production for February 2016 was 54 million short tons (MMst), a 4 MMst (7%) decrease from the prev ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
RI MAY HAVE TO IMPORT COAL FOR FUTURE POWER PLANTS: STUDY - THE JAKARTA POST
With coal prices continuing to decline, Indonesia will struggle to provide the coal needed to fire up its power stations in the near future, a stud ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
INDONESIA HIKES COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 12 MONTHS
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016, but up slightly in Mar ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
THE DRY CARGO MARKET ENDURED ONE OF ITS MOST DIFFICULT YEARS IN 2015, EXPERIENCING LOWS NOT SEEN SINCE THE MID 1980S - CLARKSONS
Whilst shipping and offshore markets have seen some good opportunities during 2015, overall there have been unprecedented challenges, so we are ver ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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