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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 11 March 16
ADANI GLOBAL BAGS 0.26 MILLION TONS OF COAL CONTRACT FROM LANKA COAL COMPANY
COALspot.com: Lanka Coal Company (Private) Limited, Sri Lanka has awarded 260,000 +/- 10% tons of Power plant 6300 GAR calorific value coal to Adan ...
Friday, 11 March 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN BY 0.5 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.6 million shor ...
Friday, 11 March 16
FORTESCUE'S MOU WITH VALE COULD STRENGTHEN ITS BUSINESS PROFILE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that Australia-based Fortescue Metals Group Limited's (BB+/Negative) memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Br ...
Thursday, 10 March 16
CHINA'S NEW POLICY PLAN COULD BE POSITIVE FOR SHIPPING, BUT TARGETS SEEM RATHER AMBITIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China set out its new policy plan during the course of the past weekend, but it seems to have set some very ambitious goals, which could be difficu ...
Thursday, 10 March 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 23% IN 2015, AS COAL IMPORTS REMAINED STEADY
COALspot.com: The United States remains a net exporter of coal, exporting 74.0 million short tons (MMst) and importing 11 MMst in 2015.
Accord ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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