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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 11 March 16
ADANI GLOBAL BAGS 0.26 MILLION TONS OF COAL CONTRACT FROM LANKA COAL COMPANY
COALspot.com: Lanka Coal Company (Private) Limited, Sri Lanka has awarded 260,000 +/- 10% tons of Power plant 6300 GAR calorific value coal to Adan ...
Friday, 11 March 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN BY 0.5 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.6 million shor ...
Friday, 11 March 16
FORTESCUE'S MOU WITH VALE COULD STRENGTHEN ITS BUSINESS PROFILE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that Australia-based Fortescue Metals Group Limited's (BB+/Negative) memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Br ...
Thursday, 10 March 16
CHINA'S NEW POLICY PLAN COULD BE POSITIVE FOR SHIPPING, BUT TARGETS SEEM RATHER AMBITIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China set out its new policy plan during the course of the past weekend, but it seems to have set some very ambitious goals, which could be difficu ...
Thursday, 10 March 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 23% IN 2015, AS COAL IMPORTS REMAINED STEADY
COALspot.com: The United States remains a net exporter of coal, exporting 74.0 million short tons (MMst) and importing 11 MMst in 2015.
Accord ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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