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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 15 March 16
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.78 MMT OF COAL IN FEBRUARY 2016
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped AU$1,110.5 mi ...
Tuesday, 15 March 16
ADARO ENERGY LOWERED ITS COAL CASH COST BY 16% TO US$ 27.98 PER TONE IN 2015
Difficult Coal Market Condition Persists in 2015, Adaro Lowers Costs, Reduces Capital Spending and Maintains Solid Liquidity.
PT Adaro E ...
Monday, 14 March 16
THE CS 50 INDEX ROSE $0.16 OR, 0.41% TO $38.82 A TON
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.41 percent week over week to averaging $38.82 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
Monday, 14 March 16
THE BALTIC EXCHANGE CONTINUED TO ROSE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rise this week helped by higher rates for pa ...
Saturday, 12 March 16
PLN, COAL COMPANIES IN TALKS ABOUT PRICES - THE JAKARTA POST
Following a study that predicted that Indonesia would struggle to provide coal for its power stations in the near future, the government will facil ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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