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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 18 December 15
CHINA GROWTH SHOCK TO HIT ENERGY, SHIPPING, STEEL MOST - FITCH
Energy, shipping and steel would be the hardest-hit sectors in Asia-Pacific (APAC) in the event of a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, says Fitch R ...
Friday, 18 December 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION REMAINS FLAT ACROSS ALL BASINS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
THE LOW DEMAND AND EXCESS COAL OUTPUT, KEEP THE FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 rose month on month and decline slightly week over week. For the week ended December 11, 20 ...
Thursday, 17 December 15
GLADSTONE PORT COAL RECORD LOOMING, EXPORTS UP 12% - GLADSTONE OBSERVER
COAL exports from Gladstone's port have taken a leap, with more than seven million tonnes leaving the wharves in November.
That increase i ...
Wednesday, 16 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLUMP 5.5% FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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