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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 25 December 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP 8.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SHED US$ 0.60 PER TON OVER WEEK, AND STANDS AT US$ 43.25 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
GLOBAL MARINE FUEL REGULATIONS COULD SHOCK REFINING AND OIL MARKETS - OPEC | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
IMO regulations call for global standards for sulphur content in marine fuel to be tightened to 0.5% from its present 3.5%. There is uncertainty ov ...
Thursday, 24 December 15
DRY BULKERS' VALUES ARE PLUNGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk carriers’ values are falling across the board, as the fall of freight rates is taking its toll, as is to be expected. In fact, accor ...
Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. Th ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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