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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to r ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
THE GOVERNMENT DECLARED THERMAL COAL BENCHMARK PRICE CRASHING ONCE AGAIN
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price down to below 2009 level. HBA has slumped by 1.69% mo ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FIRM W-W; WEAK M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $.13 per ton (0.35%) month over month to US$ 37.07 per ton. The swap w ...
Monday, 14 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX DECLINE US$ 0.04 PER TON W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.04 per ton (-0.10 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 14 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS STILL SLIDING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 0.93(2.18%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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