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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 23 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSES FIRM
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up $0.45 per ton (1.22%) month over month to US$ 37.20 per ton. The swap wa ...
Tuesday, 22 December 15
3800 GAR INDEX CLOSED AT US$ 22.03 PER TON; DOWN 0.15% W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.03 per ton (-0.07 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 21 December 15
Q3' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARE TO Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up US$ 0.20 (0.48%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 20 December 15
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI facing all time low's this week. The bulk dry index closed at 477 points on 18 December 2015.
The cape index was als ...
Friday, 18 December 15
WHEN IS A MASTER ENTITLED TO REFUSE DAMAGED CARGO? A REMINDER - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A master’s authority to clause bills of lading issued by or on his behalf can sometimes become the cause of disagreeme ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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