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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 13 December 15
THE LOW VESSEL DEMANDS PUSHED DOWN BALTIC DRY INDEX FURTHER DOWN
COALspot.com: The low vessel demand across nearly all vessel sizes pushed the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index further down in this F ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
DRY BULK RATES KEEP ON FALLING AS LOW VESSEL DEMAND IS STILL THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market nowadays is in an endless downward spiral, which as it turns out is unable to recover, at least as long as the current balance ...
Friday, 11 December 15
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% IN WEEK ENDED DECEMBER 5, 2015
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
LIENING CARGO - WHICH LIEN CLAUSE APPLIES TO THE BILL OF LADING? : WIKBORG REIN | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a dry bulk market where a charterer is not paying freight or hire, its counterparty is often left to consider whether ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
CANADIAN MINER TECK ANNOUNCES LNG HAUL TRUCK PILOT PROJECT
Teck Resources Limited is piloting the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel source in six haul trucks at its Fording River steelmakin ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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