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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 30 December 15
FINAL DEALS OF THE YEAR TAKING PLACE, AS SHIP OWNERS PREPARE FOR 2016 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The Holidays’ investment lull has taken a grip over the newbuilding and S&P market for second hand vessels, as shipbrokers are reporting ...
Tuesday, 29 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.68 (1.64%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Monday, 28 December 15
Q2' 15 U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TOTALED 7.0 MMST; DOWN 16.9% FROM Q1 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production during second quarter 2015 totaled 211.1 million short tons.
According to EIA’s preliminary quarterly ...
Monday, 28 December 15
NOVEMBER NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 11.87%; THE AVERAGE PRICE OF COAL EXPORTS ROSE 1.37%
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $1.120 billio ...
Saturday, 26 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS KEEP DROPPING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's rep ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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