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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 05 January 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX FALL TOWARD $27;SLIPPED 28.05% YEAR-TO-DATE
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index has not moved in the past week, averaging $40.12 per ton on last Thursday, according to CS (i) Coal Index ...
Monday, 04 January 16
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP REMAIN FLAT OVER CHRISTMAS & NEW YEAR HOLIDAYS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.68 (1.64%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Friday, 01 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1'16 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $36.75 PER TON
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month but flat week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap' ...
Thursday, 31 December 15
COAL PRICES FELL ON WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 ...
Thursday, 31 December 15
2016 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP RALLY TO CLOSE AT $37.98/TON
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.48 per ton (4.05%) this past week compared to the sam ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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