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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 07 January 16
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DELIVERY Q1'16 REMAIN FLAT W-O-W; UP M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.23 per ton (3.35%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Thursday, 07 January 16
SHIPPING WILL REMAIN VOLATILE AND INDISPENSABLE IN 2016 - MOORE STEPHENS
The ultimate definition of an optimist has been characterised as an accordion player with an answerphone. Such extreme optimism might be difficult ...
Wednesday, 06 January 16
NEW COAL PRICE PASS-THROUGH REGULATION BENEFITS CHINA IPPS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says the new Coal Price Pass-through Mechanism announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on 31 December ...
Tuesday, 05 January 16
BIG COAL MINERS PLAN HIGHER PRODUCTION THIS YEAR - THE JAKARTA POST
The country’s major coal miners plan to further boost production in 2016 although analysts estimate that an oversupply in the world’s c ...
Tuesday, 05 January 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2015 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
Global economy: menacing clouds in the sky cast a shadow on global economic developments 2015 never really took off, even though the global economi ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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