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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 24 January 16
PANAMAX MARKET WEAKENS ACROSS THE BOARD
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, fell ninetee ...
Friday, 22 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million shor ...
Friday, 22 January 16
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week. The falling trend of prices for coal was continuing ...
Friday, 22 January 16
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 40.80; DECLINE $ 2.80 M-O-M
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and decline week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards B ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 2.40 LESSER THAN Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 38.10
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $0.77 per ton (2.06%) this past week compared to the sam ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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