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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 24 January 16
PANAMAX MARKET WEAKENS ACROSS THE BOARD
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, fell ninetee ...
Friday, 22 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million shor ...
Friday, 22 January 16
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week. The falling trend of prices for coal was continuing ...
Friday, 22 January 16
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 40.80; DECLINE $ 2.80 M-O-M
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and decline week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards B ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 2.40 LESSER THAN Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 38.10
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $0.77 per ton (2.06%) this past week compared to the sam ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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