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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 24 January 16
PANAMAX MARKET WEAKENS ACROSS THE BOARD
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, fell ninetee ...
Friday, 22 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million shor ...
Friday, 22 January 16
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week. The falling trend of prices for coal was continuing ...
Friday, 22 January 16
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 40.80; DECLINE $ 2.80 M-O-M
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and decline week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards B ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 2.40 LESSER THAN Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 38.10
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $0.77 per ton (2.06%) this past week compared to the sam ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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