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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 24 January 16
PANAMAX MARKET WEAKENS ACROSS THE BOARD
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, fell ninetee ...
Friday, 22 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million shor ...
Friday, 22 January 16
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week. The falling trend of prices for coal was continuing ...
Friday, 22 January 16
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 40.80; DECLINE $ 2.80 M-O-M
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and decline week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards B ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 2.40 LESSER THAN Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 38.10
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $0.77 per ton (2.06%) this past week compared to the sam ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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