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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 26 January 16
Q3'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DROPPED BELOW $41 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.82 (1.94%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Tuesday, 26 January 16
OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - OPEC SECRETARY GENERAL
Opening address by HE Abdalla S. El-Badri, OPEC Secretary General, at the Chatham House Conference: Middle East and North Africa Energy 2016, Theme ...
Monday, 25 January 16
5700 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSED $ 50.08 PER TON, $0.20 LOWER FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 1.35 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 25 January 16
SHOULD A DEFAULTING PARTY BE ENTITLED TO AN INNOCENT PARTY'S SAVING, FOLLOWING THEIR BREACH OF CONTRACT? - THE NEW FLAMENCO REVISITED
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This case was addressed by the club in our of January 2015, when the High Court decision became available. The background ...
Monday, 25 January 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING: A MISERABLE START TO A NEW YEAR, WHERE THE MARKET STRUGGLES TO GROW AT ALL - BIMCO
The global production of steel dropped in 2015 compared to 2014, to a larger extent outside China, as China exported its surplus of steel to destin ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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