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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 26 January 16
Q3'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DROPPED BELOW $41 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.82 (1.94%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Tuesday, 26 January 16
OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - OPEC SECRETARY GENERAL
Opening address by HE Abdalla S. El-Badri, OPEC Secretary General, at the Chatham House Conference: Middle East and North Africa Energy 2016, Theme ...
Monday, 25 January 16
5700 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSED $ 50.08 PER TON, $0.20 LOWER FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 1.35 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 25 January 16
SHOULD A DEFAULTING PARTY BE ENTITLED TO AN INNOCENT PARTY'S SAVING, FOLLOWING THEIR BREACH OF CONTRACT? - THE NEW FLAMENCO REVISITED
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This case was addressed by the club in our of January 2015, when the High Court decision became available. The background ...
Monday, 25 January 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING: A MISERABLE START TO A NEW YEAR, WHERE THE MARKET STRUGGLES TO GROW AT ALL - BIMCO
The global production of steel dropped in 2015 compared to 2014, to a larger extent outside China, as China exported its surplus of steel to destin ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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