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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 15 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FIRM SLIGHTLY LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month over month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's r ...
Friday, 15 January 16
SHIPPING: 2016 STARTED WITH MISERY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As one would have expected, the dry bulk market starter the new year where it left off in 2015, plunging to never seen before depths, as the market ...
Friday, 15 January 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE ACROSS ALL BASINS: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 14 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY CLOSED $5.90 LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coal ...
Wednesday, 13 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 109 MMST IN 2015; COAL EXPORTS DECREASED 21% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production declined by 109 million short tons (MMst) (11%) in 2015, the largest decline ever recorded, says EIA.
The 2 ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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