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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 15 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FIRM SLIGHTLY LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month over month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's r ...
Friday, 15 January 16
SHIPPING: 2016 STARTED WITH MISERY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As one would have expected, the dry bulk market starter the new year where it left off in 2015, plunging to never seen before depths, as the market ...
Friday, 15 January 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE ACROSS ALL BASINS: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 14 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY CLOSED $5.90 LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coal ...
Wednesday, 13 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 109 MMST IN 2015; COAL EXPORTS DECREASED 21% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production declined by 109 million short tons (MMst) (11%) in 2015, the largest decline ever recorded, says EIA.
The 2 ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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