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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 15 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FIRM SLIGHTLY LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month over month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's r ...
Friday, 15 January 16
SHIPPING: 2016 STARTED WITH MISERY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As one would have expected, the dry bulk market starter the new year where it left off in 2015, plunging to never seen before depths, as the market ...
Friday, 15 January 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE ACROSS ALL BASINS: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 14 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY CLOSED $5.90 LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coal ...
Wednesday, 13 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 109 MMST IN 2015; COAL EXPORTS DECREASED 21% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production declined by 109 million short tons (MMst) (11%) in 2015, the largest decline ever recorded, says EIA.
The 2 ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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