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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 28 January 16
WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR COAL IN LIGHT OF THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT? - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
This depends – says the VDKi – to a very great extent on who you want to believe more, the United Nations or the International Energy A ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FOR Q1,Q2 AND Q3 DELIVERIES FIRM THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap rose month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coa ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS CLOSE MIXED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.17 per ton (3.13%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
WORLD HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION DECLINE IN 2015 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A DECADE - VDKI
COALspot.com: Seaborne hard coal trade and the changes in this area were decisively affected by China and India - VDKi.
China bears the g ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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