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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
COALTRANS ASIA IS RETURNING TO BALI
22nd Coaltrans Asia
Coaltrans Asia is returning to Bali to bring together over 1000 industry decision makers and thought leaders for three day ...
Monday, 18 January 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX ROSE 0.60% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline slightly week over week to averaging $39.93 per ton on this past Friday, acc ...
Monday, 18 January 16
BALTIC DRY SHIPPING INDEX DROPS TO 373 POINTS; DECLINE 13% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped this week as the BDI declined further 13 percent to 373 points week over week. The Cape index ...
Monday, 18 January 16
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 42.50 PER TON; UP 1% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.43 (1.02%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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