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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
COALTRANS ASIA IS RETURNING TO BALI
22nd Coaltrans Asia
Coaltrans Asia is returning to Bali to bring together over 1000 industry decision makers and thought leaders for three day ...
Monday, 18 January 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX ROSE 0.60% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline slightly week over week to averaging $39.93 per ton on this past Friday, acc ...
Monday, 18 January 16
BALTIC DRY SHIPPING INDEX DROPS TO 373 POINTS; DECLINE 13% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped this week as the BDI declined further 13 percent to 373 points week over week. The Cape index ...
Monday, 18 January 16
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 42.50 PER TON; UP 1% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.43 (1.02%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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