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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 01 February 16
INDONESIA'S SECOND LARGEST COAL MINER ADARO ENERGY HAS PRODUCED 51.46 MT IN 2015; 8% LOWER COMPARED TO FY14
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy, the Indonesia’s second largest coal producer by volume has produced 51.46 Mt in 2015, 8% lower compared to ...
Sunday, 31 January 16
BDI CONTINUED ITS FALL AND CLOSE AT A FRESH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertilizer, continued it ...
Friday, 29 January 16
INDONESIAN BENCHMARK COAL PRICE SETTLES DOWN $ 0.31, OR 0.58%, AT $ 53.20 A TON
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further down in January 2016. HBA has slumped by 0.58 ...
Friday, 29 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 2 PERCENT FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.1 milli ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
COAL REMAINS THE NO.1 FUEL FOR POWER GENERATION - EXXONMOBIL
COALspot.com: Energy demand trends from 2010 to 2040 are expected to vary significantly around the world, as countries move along very different tr ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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