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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 01 February 16
INDONESIA'S SECOND LARGEST COAL MINER ADARO ENERGY HAS PRODUCED 51.46 MT IN 2015; 8% LOWER COMPARED TO FY14
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy, the Indonesia’s second largest coal producer by volume has produced 51.46 Mt in 2015, 8% lower compared to ...
Sunday, 31 January 16
BDI CONTINUED ITS FALL AND CLOSE AT A FRESH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertilizer, continued it ...
Friday, 29 January 16
INDONESIAN BENCHMARK COAL PRICE SETTLES DOWN $ 0.31, OR 0.58%, AT $ 53.20 A TON
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further down in January 2016. HBA has slumped by 0.58 ...
Friday, 29 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 2 PERCENT FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.1 milli ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
COAL REMAINS THE NO.1 FUEL FOR POWER GENERATION - EXXONMOBIL
COALspot.com: Energy demand trends from 2010 to 2040 are expected to vary significantly around the world, as countries move along very different tr ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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