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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 February 16
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIAN TO CHINA HAS BEEN CONCLUDED AT US$ 2.85 PMT AND THE C3 MARKET REMAINS INACTIVE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
As everyone is getting ready for the Chinese new year, already depressed rates are under further pressure.
According to Fearnleys, ...
Wednesday, 03 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET CONTINUES TO BE UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market continues to be under pressure, with the BDI remaining in search of even the slightest support, which seems to be delaying more ...
Tuesday, 02 February 16
RECORD EXPORTS THROUGH SOUTH AFRICA'S RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL MADE AT EXPENSE OF SMALLER RIVALS, IHS SAYS
Five percent increase in coal exports through South Africa’s dominant Richards Bay Coal Terminal in 2015 unlikely to accelerate country&rsquo ...
Tuesday, 02 February 16
SETTING ASIDE, STRIKING OUT AND APPEALS TO THE COURT OF APPEAL IN SHIP ARRESTS - RAJAH & TANN ASIA LLP
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Singapore Court of Appeal once again has had to grapple with ship arrest, setting aside and appeals to the Court unde ...
Monday, 01 February 16
DRY BULK SUFFERS FROM POSEIDON'S POTENT PRONGS - CLARKSONS
It has been a grim start to 2016 for the bulkcarrier market, with the Baltic Dry Index sliding to new record lows on almost every day of the year s ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
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