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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 February 16
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIAN TO CHINA HAS BEEN CONCLUDED AT US$ 2.85 PMT AND THE C3 MARKET REMAINS INACTIVE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
As everyone is getting ready for the Chinese new year, already depressed rates are under further pressure.
According to Fearnleys, ...
Wednesday, 03 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET CONTINUES TO BE UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market continues to be under pressure, with the BDI remaining in search of even the slightest support, which seems to be delaying more ...
Tuesday, 02 February 16
RECORD EXPORTS THROUGH SOUTH AFRICA'S RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL MADE AT EXPENSE OF SMALLER RIVALS, IHS SAYS
Five percent increase in coal exports through South Africa’s dominant Richards Bay Coal Terminal in 2015 unlikely to accelerate country&rsquo ...
Tuesday, 02 February 16
SETTING ASIDE, STRIKING OUT AND APPEALS TO THE COURT OF APPEAL IN SHIP ARRESTS - RAJAH & TANN ASIA LLP
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Singapore Court of Appeal once again has had to grapple with ship arrest, setting aside and appeals to the Court unde ...
Monday, 01 February 16
DRY BULK SUFFERS FROM POSEIDON'S POTENT PRONGS - CLARKSONS
It has been a grim start to 2016 for the bulkcarrier market, with the Baltic Dry Index sliding to new record lows on almost every day of the year s ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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