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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on ...
Monday, 08 February 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING DIVING DEEP
COALspot.com: The freight markets continued to fall this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of glo ...
Monday, 08 February 16
DRY BULK: SHIPBROKER SEES BDI MARKET REACHING LOW POINT OF 236 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The endless pit that is the dry bulk market over the past two months, has been the issue of debate among ship owners, shipbroker and analysts alike ...
Friday, 05 February 16
COAL INDIA EYES COAL MINES IN SOUTH AFRICA - PTI
“Coal India Ltd has plans of acquiring coal mines in South Africa,” an official said. It is looking at acquiring mines in partnership w ...
Friday, 05 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ROSE 4.2% TO 13.6 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.6 million shor ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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