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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on ...
Monday, 08 February 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING DIVING DEEP
COALspot.com: The freight markets continued to fall this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of glo ...
Monday, 08 February 16
DRY BULK: SHIPBROKER SEES BDI MARKET REACHING LOW POINT OF 236 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The endless pit that is the dry bulk market over the past two months, has been the issue of debate among ship owners, shipbroker and analysts alike ...
Friday, 05 February 16
COAL INDIA EYES COAL MINES IN SOUTH AFRICA - PTI
“Coal India Ltd has plans of acquiring coal mines in South Africa,” an official said. It is looking at acquiring mines in partnership w ...
Friday, 05 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ROSE 4.2% TO 13.6 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.6 million shor ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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