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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 12 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S FORTUNES STILL TIED WITH CHINA'S ECONOMY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The inevitable slowdown of the Chinese economy was expected to hurt dry bulk shipping, but few expected the blow to be this hard, especially given ...
Friday, 12 February 16
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE 13% IN 2016 TO $50 ATON, ON CONTINUED WEAK DEMAND AND OVERSUPPLY - WORLD BANK
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices fell 9 percent in the fourth quarter on continued weak demand, high stocks, and surplus production, World Bank sa ...
Friday, 12 February 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 5.4% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.9 million shor ...
Thursday, 11 February 16
GLOBAL NEWBUILDING ORDERBOOK IS SHRINKING ON A DAILY BASIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2016 has started right where 2015 left off when it comes to newbuilding ordering activity, i.e. there are slim pickings to be had from shipyards ar ...
Wednesday, 10 February 16
SOUTH AFRICA IS HOPING TO SHIP MORE COAL TO INDIA IN 2016
COALspot.com: South Africa is hoping to boost coal exports to India after shipping a record 75.4 million tonnes of coal in 2015, industry officials ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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