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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
 If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial indicators, then stock markets across the world have been set to disappoint you this year.
China’s stock market is leading the way, having lost about 20% of its value since December; a free fall that was suspended only after automatic procedures that halted any transactions came into effect. Even though some analysts have blamed structural particularities of the Chinese stock market itself for the magnitude of this sharp fall, no one should rule out the fact that beyond structural problems and non-efficiencies, the downward move could very well be the long-overdue bursting of the Chinese stock bubble.
The same negative course, during the first days of the year, was followed by the rest of the stock markets in the United States and in Europe. In particular, both the NASDAQ and the Dow Jones indices are facing their worst month during the last seven years. Energy stocks like BP or Exxon are under severe pressure, impacted by falling oil prices that are now below $30/barrel for the first time after more than 13 years and with numerous market experts believing that it may even fall below $20/barrel in the next months.
If this wasn’t enough, Iran, having been out of the market for ten years is about to add its own oil production to the global supply; a fact that will exert further pressure on prices. This is expected to generate additional stress on the rest of the oil producing countries.
Besides Iran, whose economy is expected to undergo a major boom, tanker owners are among the few winners of the aforementioned developments. Tanker rates remain at very satisfactory levels, although owners are cautious on whether rates can be sustained at these levels or if they will experience a downward correction during 2016. Last week’s sharp fall in the crude carriers market acted as a definite reminder of how volatility, which hasn't been experienced much on the tanker side since the end of 2014, can quickly result in profits evaporating and further added to owners concerns for this year. This is already being observed in the second hand market where owners are developing modern vessels for sale, particularly MRs, something that could possibly lead to a short term oversupply of sale candidates and drive prices south depending of course on whether owners are actually willing to sell or if they are just testing the market.
At the same time, the dry bulk market is still struggling, with consecutive historical lows marked last week again. This has significantly affected market sentiment and it has now become a widespread opinion that 2016 will mark the absolute bottom. A point of optimism is the fact that big players that abstained from the dry bulk investments for a while, like East Med or Anangel, are now stepping off the sidelines and doing so by investing mostly on larger vessels like Capes, these being currently sold at the highest discount in the second hand market.
In this rather unstable environment and on the background of an explosive geopolitical environment one thing remains certain and this is that the shipping industry is facing one of the most challenging and interesting times in its history.
Besides the “January effect” there is also the “January barometer” hypothesis, which states that the first month of the year sets the tone for the entire year. From our side, let us just hope that this will not be the case for 2016.
By Nasos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 12 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S FORTUNES STILL TIED WITH CHINA'S ECONOMY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The inevitable slowdown of the Chinese economy was expected to hurt dry bulk shipping, but few expected the blow to be this hard, especially given ...
Friday, 12 February 16
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE 13% IN 2016 TO $50 ATON, ON CONTINUED WEAK DEMAND AND OVERSUPPLY - WORLD BANK
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices fell 9 percent in the fourth quarter on continued weak demand, high stocks, and surplus production, World Bank sa ...
Friday, 12 February 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 5.4% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.9 million shor ...
Thursday, 11 February 16
GLOBAL NEWBUILDING ORDERBOOK IS SHRINKING ON A DAILY BASIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2016 has started right where 2015 left off when it comes to newbuilding ordering activity, i.e. there are slim pickings to be had from shipyards ar ...
Wednesday, 10 February 16
SOUTH AFRICA IS HOPING TO SHIP MORE COAL TO INDIA IN 2016
COALspot.com: South Africa is hoping to boost coal exports to India after shipping a record 75.4 million tonnes of coal in 2015, industry officials ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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