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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
 As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. The ones involved in the dry bulk sector and tanker sector participants are obviously the best example of this opposition, although the increasing orderbook in the latter sector might be the source of concerns in the future.
Hence, this year leaves us wondering who exactly the winners in the Dry Bulk sector were, if any. On the one side stand those who despite the market’s poor conditions went on acquiring vessels in the second hand market at heavily discounted rates compared to previous years’ levels, knowing that what lied ahead was a bad freight market that recently bottomed to its all-time low. On the other side stand those who decided to sell, for different reasons but most having to do with pressures exerted by the poor market. Those now have a certain cash flow and the possibility to either wait for a better market or even wait to purchase in the future at even lower levels, bearing of course the cost of losing current opportunities if these lower levels do not materialize. So in regards to the aforementioned question, of who the winner is the answer is fairly hard to give right now. It really depends on the strategy that each company and investor has set, baring always in mind that this is one of the most difficult and uncertain eras not only in regards to the dry bulk shipping market but pretty much in all those sectors that are affected by a dropping demand for commodities and consumption of goods.
Nevertheless, there are some market participants out there still being optimistic that during 2016 we might witness at least a slight improvement in Dry Bulk freight rates when compared to the unprecedented lows of this year. They support that a few factors can help with that. Oil prices should remain close to $40/bbl. or if increase they will do so to levels still “comfortable” for ship operators. Activity in the demolition market will also reach even higher levels (currently even mid to late ‘90s built bulkers are offered for demo). Fleet growth will also side with owners, as the remaining orderbook is smaller than the one in the previous years. These are not “hard” and favor the argument for acquiring a vessel now, as dwt supply and costs of operating a vessel seem to be well “in control” at least for next year.
On the other hand, there are those, the majority actually, who argues that the Dry Bulk market will continue to hover around its current low levels. They support that we need to see a number of things happening before the market improves, things not expected to take place in 2016 according to them. The average demolition age should decrease further and faster; they support that even vessels of just 15yrs old should start coming up more often as demo candidates, something that we haven't seen so far. In addition, a recovery in the steel industry accompanied by improvement in coal consumption should also take place. Their argument against the possibility of that happening is obviously the fact that coal imports mostly by China have slowed down and a rebound is not expected any time soon and that in regards to the steel industry almost every single analysis points to declining consumption next year as well.
Accurate forecasts are as rare as white Christmas here in Greece. Dry Bulk market participants will almost definitely have to show more patience in the months to come and try to remember that this is a market of big excitements and as most markets cyclical as well. You have bad times, followed by less bad times, followed by good times, followed by great times. So let’s ask ourselves, where are we now and where are we most probably heading next?
Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL Q3' 16 DELIVERY SWAP WAS CLOSED 7.27% PER TON LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINE IN 2015 DUE TO SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com: The slower growth in world coal demand and lower international coal prices have contributed to a decline in U.S. coal exports in 2015 ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke t ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
OPEC'S DECISION BODES WELL FOR THE TANKER MARKET: STRONG MIDDLE EAST CRUDE EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
OPEC’s latest decision to keep up oil production is seen by shipbrokers as a further boost for the tanker market. At the end of last year OPE ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
Q1' 16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 36.73 A TON; 1.73% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3' 16 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $1.47 per ton (3.85%) month over month to US$ 36.73 per ton. The swap ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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