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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
 As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. The ones involved in the dry bulk sector and tanker sector participants are obviously the best example of this opposition, although the increasing orderbook in the latter sector might be the source of concerns in the future.
Hence, this year leaves us wondering who exactly the winners in the Dry Bulk sector were, if any. On the one side stand those who despite the market’s poor conditions went on acquiring vessels in the second hand market at heavily discounted rates compared to previous years’ levels, knowing that what lied ahead was a bad freight market that recently bottomed to its all-time low. On the other side stand those who decided to sell, for different reasons but most having to do with pressures exerted by the poor market. Those now have a certain cash flow and the possibility to either wait for a better market or even wait to purchase in the future at even lower levels, bearing of course the cost of losing current opportunities if these lower levels do not materialize. So in regards to the aforementioned question, of who the winner is the answer is fairly hard to give right now. It really depends on the strategy that each company and investor has set, baring always in mind that this is one of the most difficult and uncertain eras not only in regards to the dry bulk shipping market but pretty much in all those sectors that are affected by a dropping demand for commodities and consumption of goods.
Nevertheless, there are some market participants out there still being optimistic that during 2016 we might witness at least a slight improvement in Dry Bulk freight rates when compared to the unprecedented lows of this year. They support that a few factors can help with that. Oil prices should remain close to $40/bbl. or if increase they will do so to levels still “comfortable” for ship operators. Activity in the demolition market will also reach even higher levels (currently even mid to late ‘90s built bulkers are offered for demo). Fleet growth will also side with owners, as the remaining orderbook is smaller than the one in the previous years. These are not “hard” and favor the argument for acquiring a vessel now, as dwt supply and costs of operating a vessel seem to be well “in control” at least for next year.
On the other hand, there are those, the majority actually, who argues that the Dry Bulk market will continue to hover around its current low levels. They support that we need to see a number of things happening before the market improves, things not expected to take place in 2016 according to them. The average demolition age should decrease further and faster; they support that even vessels of just 15yrs old should start coming up more often as demo candidates, something that we haven't seen so far. In addition, a recovery in the steel industry accompanied by improvement in coal consumption should also take place. Their argument against the possibility of that happening is obviously the fact that coal imports mostly by China have slowed down and a rebound is not expected any time soon and that in regards to the steel industry almost every single analysis points to declining consumption next year as well.
Accurate forecasts are as rare as white Christmas here in Greece. Dry Bulk market participants will almost definitely have to show more patience in the months to come and try to remember that this is a market of big excitements and as most markets cyclical as well. You have bad times, followed by less bad times, followed by good times, followed by great times. So let’s ask ourselves, where are we now and where are we most probably heading next?
Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On Friday 4th of December the meeting of OPEC was held in Vienna, Austria. Since its last meeting, oil and product stock levels have continued to r ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
THE GOVERNMENT DECLARED THERMAL COAL BENCHMARK PRICE CRASHING ONCE AGAIN
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price down to below 2009 level. HBA has slumped by 1.69% mo ...
Tuesday, 15 December 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FIRM W-W; WEAK M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $.13 per ton (0.35%) month over month to US$ 37.07 per ton. The swap w ...
Monday, 14 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX DECLINE US$ 0.04 PER TON W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.04 per ton (-0.10 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 14 December 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS STILL SLIDING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 0.93(2.18%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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