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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
 As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. The ones involved in the dry bulk sector and tanker sector participants are obviously the best example of this opposition, although the increasing orderbook in the latter sector might be the source of concerns in the future.
Hence, this year leaves us wondering who exactly the winners in the Dry Bulk sector were, if any. On the one side stand those who despite the market’s poor conditions went on acquiring vessels in the second hand market at heavily discounted rates compared to previous years’ levels, knowing that what lied ahead was a bad freight market that recently bottomed to its all-time low. On the other side stand those who decided to sell, for different reasons but most having to do with pressures exerted by the poor market. Those now have a certain cash flow and the possibility to either wait for a better market or even wait to purchase in the future at even lower levels, bearing of course the cost of losing current opportunities if these lower levels do not materialize. So in regards to the aforementioned question, of who the winner is the answer is fairly hard to give right now. It really depends on the strategy that each company and investor has set, baring always in mind that this is one of the most difficult and uncertain eras not only in regards to the dry bulk shipping market but pretty much in all those sectors that are affected by a dropping demand for commodities and consumption of goods.
Nevertheless, there are some market participants out there still being optimistic that during 2016 we might witness at least a slight improvement in Dry Bulk freight rates when compared to the unprecedented lows of this year. They support that a few factors can help with that. Oil prices should remain close to $40/bbl. or if increase they will do so to levels still “comfortable” for ship operators. Activity in the demolition market will also reach even higher levels (currently even mid to late ‘90s built bulkers are offered for demo). Fleet growth will also side with owners, as the remaining orderbook is smaller than the one in the previous years. These are not “hard” and favor the argument for acquiring a vessel now, as dwt supply and costs of operating a vessel seem to be well “in control” at least for next year.
On the other hand, there are those, the majority actually, who argues that the Dry Bulk market will continue to hover around its current low levels. They support that we need to see a number of things happening before the market improves, things not expected to take place in 2016 according to them. The average demolition age should decrease further and faster; they support that even vessels of just 15yrs old should start coming up more often as demo candidates, something that we haven't seen so far. In addition, a recovery in the steel industry accompanied by improvement in coal consumption should also take place. Their argument against the possibility of that happening is obviously the fact that coal imports mostly by China have slowed down and a rebound is not expected any time soon and that in regards to the steel industry almost every single analysis points to declining consumption next year as well.
Accurate forecasts are as rare as white Christmas here in Greece. Dry Bulk market participants will almost definitely have to show more patience in the months to come and try to remember that this is a market of big excitements and as most markets cyclical as well. You have bad times, followed by less bad times, followed by good times, followed by great times. So let’s ask ourselves, where are we now and where are we most probably heading next?
Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 06 December 15
DESPITE TEMPTING NEWBUILDING PRICES, CONTRACTING IN DRY BULK REMAINS LOW - BIMCO
The current newbuilding prices for dry bulk ships has dropped so much that they just passed the lows of 2012 heading downwards and are now at the l ...
Friday, 04 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS ARE ALMOST FLAT OVER WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and rose slightly week over week. Coal prices seen very margi ...
Friday, 04 December 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR W/E NOVEMBER 28TH FELL SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.0 million shor ...
Friday, 04 December 15
MINING OUTLOOK WEAKENS FURTHER ON FALLING CHINESE DEMAND - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings' outlook for the global mining sector in 2016 is firmly negative, reflecting our view that Chinese demand will cont ...
Thursday, 03 December 15
DRY BULK: THERMAL COAL LOWER USAGE UNDER A POTENTIAL NEW CLIMATE DEAL WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MARKET'S RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In direct contrast to the tanker market, the dry bulk one has seen demand for key commodities, such a coal, dwindling down over the course of the p ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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